Session: DFMLC-04-04: Design for Large and Distributed Systems and Life Cycle

Paper Number: 143201

143201 - Barriers to Sustainable System Evolution: a Simulation Study Exploring the Transition From Private to Public Transportation 

Road transportation networks are large, distributed systems that present novel challenges in the management and use phase of their lifecycles. Due to the mounting challenges posed by traffic congestion and air pollution within urban city centers, authorities are implementing more restrictions and regulations. Public transportation, car-sharing, sustainable vehicles, and Mobility-as-a-Service have all increased in popularity as solutions to tackle these challenges. Nevertheless, there is evidence that these new trends might not help as expected, with research focusing more on vehicle technology than system evolution. The main objective of this study is to understand the dynamics of transportation network evolution from a systems perspective. Focusing on system capacity, and population characteristics, we seek to evaluate how different ratios of users commuting with either public transport or private car affect network congestion. An agent-based model is used to simulate the traffic dynamics of a hypothetical city block. Each simulation tests a different private car-to-public bus passenger ratio and different system loading. The model measures how many passengers arrive at their destinations and their commute duration to assess system performance. The hypothesis tested is: as the ratio between public buses and private cars is modified to include more buses, the dynamics of the transportation system change, impacting system evolution towards more sustainable modes of transportation. Contributions are a conceptual model documented through Overview, Design concepts, and Details protocol as well as an analysis of the results obtained. The results indicate the evolution path taken toward more sustainable transportation can severely mitigate system-level objectives. For example, commuting times for those using public transport can rise 22% when shifting riders from cars to buses (without increasing system loading). Additionally, under certain conditions, we show that the only people who benefit (in terms of commuting time) when individuals shift to using public buses are those who do not switch and stay with private cars. Significant policy recommendations include that city planners avoid an incremental approach to sustainability in identified critical regions of the transition. These types of insights help manage the complexity of transport systems, leading to the design and operation of smarter and sustainable cities. Future research will be focused on customizing the model to represent real cities and determine if the same system evolution guidance applies to the use phase of other large, distributed systems.

Presenting Author: Rogelio Gracia Otalvaro Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University

Presenting Author Biography: Rogelio Gracia earned his B.S. and M.S. in Industrial Systems Engineering in ICAI, Madrid, Spain in 2020 and 2022 respectively, with majors in Electronics and Automation for both. In 2022 he also earned his M.S. in Mechanical Systems Engineering in Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University. He has 3+ years of professional experience in the real-estate, healthcare and financial sectors acting as a technical and financial consultant. After these experiences he chose to pursue his Ph.D. in EECS in Embry-Riddle where he focuses on researching about different system properties and their scalability, new technologies like AI and ML, and teaches a lab in Control Dynamics.

Authors:

Rogelio Gracia Otalvaro Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University
Bryan Watson Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University