Session: DFMLC-01-01-Life Cycle Decision Making

Paper Number: 97879

97879 - Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions From u.s. Light-Duty Transport in Line With the 2 Degrees Celsius Target 

Presentation only submission

Making, driving, and disposing of U.S. light-duty vehicles (LDVs) accounts for 3% of global greenhouse gas emissions related to energy and processing. This study calculates future emissions and global temperature rises attributable to U.S. LDVs. We examine how 2021-2050 U.S. LDV cumulative emissions can be limited to 23.1 GtCO2eq, helping to limit global warming to less than 2^oC. We vary four vehicle life cycle parameters (transport demand, sales share of alternative fuel vehicles, vehicle material recycling rates, and vehicle lifespans) in a dynamic fleet analysis to determine annual LDV sales, scrappage, and fleet compositions. We combine these data with vehicle technology and electricity emissions scenarios to calculate annual production, use, and disposal emissions attributable to U.S. LDVs.  

Only 3% of the 1,512 modeled pathways stay within the emissions limit. Cumulative emissions are most sensitive to transport demand, and the speed of fleet electrification and electricity decarbonization. Increasing production of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) to 100% of sales by 2040 (at the latest) is necessary, and early retirement of internal combustion engine vehicles is beneficial. Rapid electricity decarbonization minimizes emissions from BEV use and increasingly energy-intensive vehicle production. Deploying high fuel economy vehicles can increase emissions from the production of BEV batteries and lightweight materials. Increased recycling has a negligible effect on these emissions because over the time period there are few post-consumer batteries and lightweight materials available for recycling. Without aggressive actions, U.S. LDVs will likely exceed the cumulative emissions budget by 2039 and contribute a further 0.02^oC to global warming by 2050, 2.7% of the remaining global 2^oC budget.

Presenting Author: Yongxian Zhu University of Michigan Ann Arbor

Presenting Author Biography: Yongxian Zhu is currently a postdoc researcher in the mechanical engineering department at the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor. Yongxian received both the B.S. and M.S. degree in Mechanical Engineering from Purdue University. She works in Prof. Dan Cooper’s Resourceful Manufacturing & Design group. Her research interests include metal flow networks to help identify potential material efficiency strategies and circular economy opportunities; metal refining technology roadmaps for increasing End-of-Life metal recycling; and light-duty vehicle lifecycle impact assessment and fleet emissions study. She has first author research article publications on the Environmental Science and Technology and the Resource Conservation and Recycling, and co-authored articles on the Journal of Industrial Ecology and various conferences.

Authors:

Yongxian Zhu University of Michigan Ann Arbor
Steven Skerlos University of Michigan
Ming Xu University of Michigan
Daniel Cooper University of Michigan